PMI’s 2013 ‘Pulse of the Profession’ Survey

PMI’s 2013 ‘Pulse of the Profession’ Survey makes interesting reading, particularly given most of the world is in or near recession. PMI predicts that between 2010 and 2020, 15.7 million new project management roles will be created globally across seven project-intensive industries. China and India will lead the growth in project management, generating approximately 8.1 million and 4 million project management roles through 2020, respectively.

Along with job growth, there will be a significant increase in the economic footprint of the project management profession which is expected to grow by USD$6.61 trillion. This enormous anticipated growth, along with higher-than average salaries, will make the next seven years an opportune time for professionals and job-seekers to build project management skills.

The squeeze on talent has already started! PMI’s Pulse of the Profession shows that high-performing organizations don’t just emphasise strategy and improve efficiency. They cultivate talent resources to deliver successful projects and programs. With that talent, they can reduce risk, increase stability, improve growth and build a strong competitive advantage.

In contrast, poorly performing organisations that don’t see talent as part of the success equation – they believe the job market is a bottomless pit of skilled people that can be bought in as needed. This puts their projects and their organizations at risk! Whilst more and more successful organisations have adopted talent management as a core competency, many others fail to invest in skilled project management talent and talent development initiatives, and this shows in their performance.

The contrast is stark – high performing organisations are likely to find some $20 million at risk for every 1$billion invested in projects, whereas low performing organisations place $280 million at risk, over 10 time the amount.

The low-performing organizations – those which complete 60% or fewer projects on time, on budget and within scope – are significantly less likely to provide a defined career path for project managers, a process to develop project management competency, and / or training on project management tools and techniques. Poaching talent is a zero sum game that simply drives up costs for everyone.

As a result of this lack of investment, a talent gap exists in project management. A large number of skilled practitioners are reaching retirement age, organisations that train staff hold onto staff and the rest are going to find recruitment becoming increasingly difficult. Talent simply does not grow on trees – skills need developing and nurturing within the organisations that need them.

The reason this matters is that at a time when project success rates are declining and risks are increasing, organisational leadership needs to fill an anticipated 15.7 million new project management roles worldwide by 2020. If they don’t, $344.08 billion in GDP will be at risk – and that’s not even counting the $135 million that organizations already risk for every $1 billion spent on projects.

The ‘high performers’ achieve their results through a combination of good governance and good management. They see project, program and portfolio management as strategic capabilities needed to invest in their organisation’s future. They recognise process improvement and talent management are the two key elements that need investment to deliver outcomes. And they use well proven governance and management processes such as requiring active sponsors (79% of project have active sponsors in high performing organisations -v- 43% in low performing organisations).

Talent management needs investments in selection, training, mentoring and coaching; ideally from internal resources but when necessary using external help to kick-start the development of the internal capabilities. (see more on mentoring and training)

Are you and your team ready to make talent management a strategic priority? Download:
PMI’s Pulse of the Profession™ In-Depth Report: Talent Management,  and
PMI’s Project Management Skills Gap Report, and see how you can build your organization’s success – one project manager at a time. To help PMI have developed a sophisticated career framework, see: http://www.mosaicprojects.com.au/Training-PMI_Framework.html#CareerCentral

PMBOK® Guide 5th Edition – Some Technical Differences

We are busily working through the PMBOK® Guide 5th Edition updating Mosaic’s PMI training courses ready for the scheduled examination changes. Three of the more technical changes we have discovered (out of many) are:

The Good:
Quality management has been tidied up. The seven basic tools of quality management are now dealt with in on place, once, in 8.1.2.3 and referenced through the rest of the chapter. The ‘magnificent 7’ are: Cause and Effect Diagrams, Flow charts, Checksheets (checklist), Pareto Diagrams, histograms, control charts and scatter diagrams. Other specific techniques are discussed in the appropriate process. There is also an attempt to relate the different project/quality cycles including the basic process groups, the ‘Plan-Do-Check-Act cycle, the cost of quality and quality assurance and control.

The Bad:
Monte Carlo is missing from Time Management and Cost Management! One area that needs a major update in the 6th Edition are the aspects of time and cost management focused on three point estimates and variability. Monte Carlo has been moved out of these sections into the Risk chapter, and is defined as the source of ‘contingencies’ and as a means of ‘simulating’ schedule outcomes. Very little is included about the ways simulation through Monte Carlo are developed or used. In particular, there is no discussion of how different distributions should be chosen based on the available data. Understanding the range of potential outcomes is a critical time and cost management process as is the interactions between time and cost. The treatment in the Risk chapter is not bad, just in the wrong place, hopefully in the 6th Edition the consideration of modelling outcomes will move back into the Time and Cost chapters Or there will be far clearer links drawn between the development of the raw data and its use in cost and time management.

The Ugly:
For some reason PMI keeps bringing PERT back into consideration, ensuring the unfortunate confusion around PERT will persist for another 4 years at least! The completely inaccurate reference to ‘PERT Cost’ that crept into the 4th Edition has been killed off but the concept has reappeared in Duration Estimating (6.5.2.4), Quality Assurance (8.2.2.1) and the glossary.

There is nothing wrong with PERT being in the PMBOK if the technique is defined properly. PERT is a simplistic technique that applies a modified beta distribution and an approximation of the calculation for Standard Deviation (a polite term for inaccurate), to the activities on the critical path in a single calculation to determine the mean completion date (p50) and the effect of adding 1 Standard Deviation to approximate the p80 completion (ie, the date with an 80% probability of being achieved or bettered). PERT is prone to errors including the ‘PERT Merge Bias’ which describes the effect of a nominally sub-critical path finishing later than the critical path.

However, PERT is not synonymous with three point estimating despite a number of software vendors making the same mistake and using a ‘cute name’ to make their uncertainty calculations sound sexy. Any computation that involves simulation, different distribution options or calculating the whole network is not PERT.

PERT has an important place in history and is a useful teaching tool because you can do the calculations manually. But confusing this venerable technique with simulation and three point estimating helps no one and creates a significant communication problem – when a planner says he has done a PERT analysis you have no idea if this means a full Monte Carlo simulation, a manual PERT calculation described above or something in between. As a professional body PMI has let everyone down perpetuating this confusion.

The End:
Overall the PMBOK® Guide 5th Edition is still a significant improvement; our earlier posts have highlighted many of these changes:

To read our earlier comments:
http://mosaicprojects.wordpress.com/category/training/pmbok5/

To see more on the book:
- In Australia: http://www.mosaicprojects.com.au/Books.html#PMI
- Other places: http://marketplace.pmi.org/Pages/Default.aspx

Sydney workshops

There are a series of workshops planned for Sydney over the next few weeks we highly recommend:

Workshop 1: Applying Earned Value to Commercial [IT] Projects
This course has been crafted to allow project managers to decide for themselves whether they want to improve the performance of their projects by apply the principles of Earned Value without the overhead associated with large, complex Department of Defence acquisition contracts.

Workshop 2: Earned Schedule Masterclass
Earned schedule analysis is a breakthrough analytical technique that derives schedule performance measures in units of time, rather than cost. The same basic EVM data points are used. Indicators, similar to those for cost, are derivable from the earned schedule measure. These indicators provide a status and predictive ability for schedule, analogous to cost.

Workshop 3: Approaches to and Lessons Learned from “Internal Project Surveillance” with Lisa Wolf EVP, PMP. Lisa is the Earned Value Management (EVM) Focal Point for Booz Allen Hamilton, a leading USA global consulting firm that is committed to delivering results that endure.

This workshop focuses on the approaches which can be adopted and lessons learned in setting up an internal project management surveillance function which comes from Booz Allen Hamilton’s internal experience as well as extensive experience assisting US Government agencies and other clients. Best practices which are essential for successfully establishing this function including processes, procedures, and vital internal relationship-building will be explored.

For more information on these workshops see: ‘Upcoming Events’ at http://pmisydney.org/

Free PMP Questions

Over the years we have collected 1000s of practice questions for our PMP, CAPM and PMI-SP exam prep courses, far more then we need. Rather than simply keeping them we have decided to publish a ‘daily question’ for you to have fun with… Our current stock of question means there will be no repeats for the next 3 years!

If you already hold a PMI credential, the questions will help retain the knowledge you learned when studying.

If you are still studying for a credential, the questions will help with your practice. Each question comes with an answer and is graded √  ? or X for each exam:
√ = Applies to the examination (PMP, CAPM or PMI-SP)
? = Useful but probably too hard
X = Probably not relevant

To round out the page we are also posting a ‘Weekly Tip’ for Project Managers.

Today’s daily question is posted at: http://www.mosaicprojects.com.au/Training-PMP-Q-Today.html – When you think you know the right answer click through to the answer page to see today’s question & answer plus the Q&As sent earlier in the week.

So you don’t miss any of the questions, we are Tweeting the daily question – you can click to ‘Follow’ the questions through our dedicated: @PMPQuestions. If you find the questions ‘fun’ – reTweet to your friends and colleagues, the more people following the questions, the more encouragement for us to keep going.

Good luck!!

Proof of the blindingly obvious

We all know good scheduling leads to better project outcomes – certainly for me it’s been a article of faith for most of the last 40 years and ‘obvious’ from observation. But ask me, and any other scheduler I know to prove this fact and we would be hard pressed to come up with anything substantive.

Over the years there have been many surveys that link the lack of effective planning to poor project outcomes. One of the more definitive was undertaken by the CIOB in 2008 (download the report ‘Managing the Risk of Delayed Completion in the 21st Century’). But showing projects tend to fail if they don’t use effective planning and scheduling is not the same as showing that good planning and scheduling enhances the probability of success.

This has now changed! A paper published by Dr Dan Patterson, the CEO of Acumen, demonstrates a clear link between good schedules (defined as technically competent schedules) and good project outcomes.

Figure 1, taken from Dan’s paper Does Better Scheduling Drive Execution Success? Published in November’s PM World Today shows a strong correlation between the technical competence used to develop the schedule and the number of activities that finished on time. The data is based on a sample of 35 large projects ranging from US$15 million to US$30 billion (download the paper).

Link the CIOB findings with Dan’s data and the message is blindingly obvious – if you are running a large project without a competent scheduler supporting the management team with effective scheduling, you are virtually guaranteeing failure!

Hopefully the work currently being undertaken by Planning Planet, CIOB and others to develop a framework (or frameworks) to train and qualify competent schedulers will mean in the next year or two there will be enough good schedulers to meet the demand from business and industry. For more on this see: Should you certify your schedulers?  and watch this space…. There are a number of announcements due in the next couple of weeks.

Most Effective Forms of Project Management Training

One of the findings from a recently conducted survey by project management training and consulting firm Project Management Solutions (led by Kent Crawford) was that not all forms of project management training are created equal – or are even effective.

The survey looked at three forms of training

• Instructor-led classroom training
• Blended training
• Technology delivered training

Instructor-led classroom training ranked #1
69% of respondents rated it as the most effective method for a variety of reasons. These included the opportunity to network, to spontaneously ask questions and share experiences, and to learn in an environment that tries to mimic actual project team dynamics.

“The instructors are typically seasoned project managers who have a lot of war stories,” says Crawford. “They felt hearing lessons from someone who has the scars is invaluable.”

Blended Learning ranked #2
Blended techniques, which combine instructor led-classroom learning with some combination of self-directed e-learning, instructor-led e-learning, or technology-delivered training, ranked second, with 53% of respondents casting their vote.

Technology-delivered training ranked last.

• 29% of respondents deemed self-directed e-learning to be worthwhile.
• 27% considered instructor-led e-learning (such as webinars) to be valuable.
• 20% think technology-delivered training (such as CD-ROMs or podcasts) is useful.

We wholeheartedly agree with these findings. Mosaic has always considered direct integration between trainees and an experienced project manager is critical. Whilst instructor led training is ideal, access to this form of training is limited by location, timing and cost. Our public classroom schedule is outlined at: http://www.mosaicprojects.com.au/Training-Schedule.html

To overcome these limitations and paying for coffee at $5 per cup, we have developed our unique Mentored Email™ courses for the PMP, CAPM, PgMP and PMI-SP credentials. We feel Mentored Email™ offers the best of both worlds; you work at a speed that suits you in the home, office or on the train; but you interact continually with your course mentor via email or telephone. To see more on this unique and effective option see: http://www.mosaicprojects.com.au/Training-Mentored.html

CAPM at Swinburne University

Mosaic has entered into a long term partnership with Meta PM to deliver a series of intensive 4 Day CAPM courses to members of the Swinburne community and others. The courses will be delivered on-campus during semester breaks over the next 18 months.

The Meta PM / Swinburne courses are designed to provide Swinburne graduates with access to a range of industry standard credentials to augment their core academic studies and degrees; improving the graduates position in the job market. Mosaic’s role is to deliver the CAPM courses included in the overall agreement.

Download the Swinburne Brochure, or see more on Mosaic’s CAPM course options.

PMP Exam Update

We are busily updating our PMP materials ready for the new exam scheduled to launch on the 1st September (and helping the last of our current candidates to finish their Mentored Email™  courses).

One of the facets in the new PMP Exam Specification is the concept of ‘Cross-cutting knowledge and skills’ – these capabilities apply to all of the other ‘domains’ of project management from initiation through to closing. A number of these core capabilities are already covered by Mosaic’s White Papers including:
Negotiation
Active listening  and
Leadership.

Two new White Papers uploaded this weekend to round out the information requirements for the PMP exam are:
Data Gathering and Brainstorming  and
Facilitation.

All of Mosaic’s new PMP courses are designed for the new exam including our Mentored Email™  one-on-one training and all futures classroom courses starting with the 5 day intensive course schedule for Melbourne starting 29th August.

Now all we have to do is update our PgMP course before that exam changes on 1st January 2012……

PMOZ 2011

The PMOZ conference is one of the best regional project management conferences world-wide and has a reputation for combining fun, networking and high quality learning into one event. The 2011 conference theme Project Management at the Speed of Light has attracted a wide range of interesting speakers from around the world.

Our involvement in the conference includes my keynote presentation Motivate your manager plus Patrick’s half day scheduling workshop and his paper Time management -v- Contract administration.

It’s not too late to join us for a great event, for more information download the Registration Brochure.

PgMP Credential Update

As at the 1st January 2012 the PgMP exam will become much more difficult! The new exam reflects a substantial refinement to the role of a Program Management Professional. The current exam is focused on 5 domains (Defining, Initiating, Planning, Executing and Closing the Program) which will be assembled under new Domain 2 “Program Life Cycle” as sub-domains with new domains, 1, 3, 4 and 5 added. Out of the total of 72 tasks in the new exam, 26 are new or have major revisions, and another 26 have minor changes. The structure of the new exam is:

1. Strategic Program Management
2. Program Life Cycle
     • Defining the Program
     • Initiating the Program
     • Planning the Program
     • Executing the Program
     • Controlling the Program
     • Closing the Program
3. Benefits Management
4. Stakeholder Management
5. Governance

The good news is people who pass their PgMP under the current regime maintain their PgMP status after the 1st January. There is no requirement to re-sit or upgrade an existing credential.

So if you were thinking that obtaining your PgMP would be a good career enhancing move, the smart option would be to pass your exam this year! To find out more about the changes and the options for becoming a PgMP this year, see: http://www.mosaicprojects.com.au/Training-PgMP.html