Tag Archives: Project Controls

Critical confusion – when activities on the critical path don’t compute……

The definition of a schedule ‘critical path’ varies (see Defining the Critical Path), but the essence of all of the valid definitions is the ‘critical path’ determines the minimum time needed to complete the project and either by implication or overtly the definitions state that delaying an activity on the critical path will cause a delay to the completion of the project and accelerating an activity will (subject to float on other paths[1]) accelerate the completion of the project.

A series of blog posts by Miklos Hajdu, Research Fellow at Budapest University of Technology and Economics, published earlier this year highlights the error in this assumption and significantly enhances the basic information contained in my materials on ‘Links, Lags and Ladders’ and our current PMI-SP course notes.  The purpose of this post is to consolidate all these concepts into a single publication.

The best definition of a critical path is Critical Path: sequence of activities that determine the earliest possible completion date for the project or phase[2].  This definition is always correct.  Furthermore, in simple Precedence networks (PDM) that only use Finish-to-Start links, and traditional Activity-on-Arrow (ADM) networks the general assumption that increasing the duration of an activity on the critical path delays the completion of the schedule and reducing the duration of an activity on the critical path accelerates the completion of the schedule holds true.  The problems occur in PDM schedules using more sophisticated link types.  Miklos has defined five constructs using standard PDM links in which the normal assumption outlined above fails. These constructs, starting with the ‘normal critical’ that behaves as expected are shown diagrammatically below[3].

Normal Critical

The overall project duration responds as expected to a change in the activity duration.

1 Normal critical

A one day reduction of the duration of an activity on the critical path will shorten the project duration by one day, a one day increase will lengthen the project duration by one day.

Reverse Critical

The change in the overall project duration is the opposite of any change in the activity duration.

2 Reverse Critical

A one day reduction of the duration of Activity B will lengthen the project duration by one day, a one day increase will reduce the project duration by one day.

Neutral Critical

Either a day decrease or a day increase leaves the project duration unaffected. There are two variants, SS and FF:

3 Neutral 1

3 Neutral 2

In both cases it does not matter what change you make to Activity B, there is no change in the overall duration of the project.  This is one of the primary reasons almost every scheduling standard requires a link from a predecessor into the start of every activity and a link from the end of the activity to a successor.

Bi-critical Activities

Any change in the duration of Activity B will cause the project duration to increase.

4 Bi-critical

A one day reduction of the duration of Activity B will lengthen the project duration by one day, a one day increase will lengthen the project duration by one day.  Bi-critical activities depend on having a balanced ladder where all of the links and activities are critical in the baseline schedule. Increasing the duration of B pushes the completion of C through the FF link.  Reducing the duration of B ‘pulls’ the SS link back to a later time and therefore delays the start of C.  The same effect will occur if the ladder is unbalanced or there is some float across the whole ladder, it is just not as obvious and may not flow through to a delay depending on the float values and the extent of the change.

Increasing Normal Decreasing Neutral

An increase in Activity B will delay completion, but a reduction has no effect! There are two variations on this type of construct.

5 Increasing Normal Decreasing Neutral 1

5 Increasing Normal Decreasing Neutral 2

A one day increase in the duration of Activity B will increase the project duration by one day, however, reducing the length of Activity B has no effect on the project’s duration.

Increasing Neutral Decreasing Reverse

An increase in Activity B has no effect, but a reduction will delay completion! Again, there are two variations on this type of construct.

6 Increasing neutral decreasing reverse 1

6 Increasing neutral decreasing reverse 2

A one day increase in the duration of Activity B has no effect on the project’s duration, however, reducing the length of Activity B by one day will increase the project duration by one day.

Why does this matter?

The concept of the schedule model accurately reflecting the work of the project to support decision making during the course of the work and for the forensic assessment of claims after the project has completed, is central to the concepts of modern project management.  Apart from the ‘normal critical’ construct, all of the other constructs outlined above will produce wrong information or allow a claim to be dismissed based on the nuances of the model rather than the real effect.

Using most contemporary tools, all the planner can do is be aware of the issues and avoid creating the constructs that cause issues.  Medium term, there is a need to revisit the whole function of overlapping activities in a PDM network to allow overlapping and progressive feed to function efficiently.  This problem was solved in some of the old ADM scheduling tools, ICL VME PERT had a sophisticated ‘ladder’ construct[4].  Similar capabilities are available in some modern scheduling tools that have the capability to model a ‘Continuous precedence relationship[5]’ or implement RD-CPM[6].


[1] For more on the effect of ‘float’ see: http://www.mosaicprojects.com.au/PDF/Schedule_Float.pdf

[2] From ISO 21500 Guide to Project Management,

[3] The calculations for these constructs are on Miklos’s blog at: https://www.linkedin.com/in/miklos-hajdu-a1418862

[4] For more on ‘Links, Lags and Ladders’ see: http://www.mosaicprojects.com.au/PDF/Links_Lags_Ladders.pdf

[5] For more on continuous relationships see:  http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877705815031811

[6] For more on RD-CPM see: http://www.mosaicprojects.com.au/WhitePapers/WP1035_RD-CPM.pdf

Risk management handbook published

The RM Handbook coverThe Risk Management Handbook edited by Dr. David Hillson (the ‘risk doctor’) is a practical guide to managing the multiple dimensions of risk in modern projects and business.  We contributed Chapter 10: Stakeholder risk management.

The 23 Chapters are a cutting-edge survey of the risk management landscape, providing a broad and up-to-date introduction to risk, with expert guidance on current best practice and cutting-edge insight into new developments within risk management.

For more on the book, see: www.koganpage.com/product/the-risk-management-handbook-9780749478827

The PM College of Scheduling Conference and Membership

The Project Management College of Scheduling is now officially open for business.   As you may already know, a group of us led by Jon Wickwire and Stu Ockman joined together to found the Project Management Institute College of Scheduling in early-2002.  A dozen years later, a new group (including me and many of the leaders of the former College) founded its successor, The Project Management College of Scheduling (PM-COS).   Subsequently, the PM-COS has completed the formalities necessary under USA law and is now officially open for business.

The role fulfilled by PM-COS is intended to be quite different to most member based organisations, focused on creating knowledge and capability in the scheduling profession.  As a member, you will:

  • Be a part of creating the centre of excellence for the advancement of scheduling and project controls throughout the world
  • Collaborate with other top schedule professionals, consultants and experts in identifying and instituting best practices on your projects
  • Help develop standards in all areas of scheduling including specifying, preparing, updating, software, claims, training and research
  • Provide education and training to promote accurate and ethical scheduling
  • Join in a dialog with software developers to foster implementations of new, innovative features in upcoming releases
  • Participate in mentoring the next generation of scheduling professionals

If sharing ideas and giving back to the profession get you excited and you’d like to be a part of our journey, why not Join Us now.  And, whether or not membership in the College is in your future, we’d love to have you with us at our annual conference, May 15th-18th in Chicago.

PM-COS16The Project Management College of Scheduling Annual International Conference, Scheduling the Future, will be held on the 15th to 18th May at the Hyatt Chicago Magnificent Mile.  This is a terrific opportunity to:

(1) share ideas,
(2) see old friends and make new ones and
(3) participate in this year’s premier planning and scheduling event.

We have a terrific technical program offering 14 Professional Development Units (PDU’s), with speakers and panel discussions planned to give everyone a chance to participate.  In addition, we have a social program with a Sunday night vendor reception, Monday night Gala Dinner and Tuesday night free for a night on the town.  We’re also planning a golf tournament Wednesday afternoon.

Don’t forget to check out the conference program, and drop by our website, http://www.pmcos.org/, to sign up now.  We’re offering a discount for PMCOS Members and another for early member-registration.  Finally, make your hotel reservations directly with the Hyatt Magnificent Mile at their website.  This may be the most important part since we’re visiting during peak season and the hotel has reserved a limited number of rooms for the conference.

We’ve got a lot planned, and you can help us make it a success!

Project Governance and Controls Symposium 2016.

miracle2We are only a few weeks out from PGCS 2016 and this year’s  Symposium is shaping up to be the best yet.  The Symposium will be held in its usual ADFA, Canberra venue on Wed. 11th and Thur. 12th May 2016.

Governing for performance was the key theme of the AICD’s Australian Governance Summit held in Sydney last month. But organisations cannot perform sustainably if they cannot govern and control their projects effectively.  Unfortunately as the Shergold Report has highlighted (consistent with the findings of many other surveys), most organisations struggle to achieve the full potential value from their projects and programs – literally $billions are wasted annually by poorly governed and controlled projects.

PGCS was created to focus on the gap between intention and delivery – and to help build Australia capability in the governance and management of projects by providing a forum for the exchange of ideas between international experts, leading Australian practitioners, the people responsible for governing projects within their organisations, and the people responsible for making the governance and controls systems work.

The 2016 program is on target to fulfil this ambitious objective 100%:

  • We have speakers from the UK National Audit Office and the Australian National Audit Office, both of who lead the push for improved performance in government projects.
  • Controls and surveillance of projects is well covered with both international and Australian experts. Lisa Wolf’s pre-symposium Masterclass ‘A Practical Guide to Project and Contract Surveillance’ is a sell out, fortunately Lisa is also one of our Keynote Speakers.
  • The needs and expectations of organisational governors is covered by among others, Ms. Jane Halton the Secretary of the Australian Department of Finance who will be outlining her perspectives on improving the performance of major projects.
  • AIPM, PMI, IPMA and ICCPM are all supporting the Symposium and providing high quality speakers.
  • We have our inaugural Academic Stream – this aspect of the Symposium will become increasingly important as we direct any surplus funds towards Australian based research into the governance and control of projects and programs.
  • And there’s more – click through to our program page to download the full event program.

Thanks to the ongoing support of our Platinum Sponsor, The University of New South Wales (UNSW), Canberra, the cost of the symposium, including 2 full days and our reception at the ADFA Offices Mess is only $990 (early bird available prior to the 25th April).

To make the learning opportunity provided by the Symposium available to more junior staff, we also have a unique 2-for-1 offer in place with a number of ‘supporting organisations’; each senior manager who registers can nominate a more junior staff member to attend the Symposium at no additional cost (We are always happy to extend this arrangement to new organisations).

PGCS is designed to be a very different type of event compared to the traditional, and well loved, annual conferences run by the major associations – we are very focused on accessing and creating knowledge focused on ‘governance and controls’ – as part of this process all of the available papers from previous years are also made available to attendees and others via our on-line library.

The open question is can you afford to miss this world class event?  For more information visit our website at: http://www.pgcs.org.au/

Note: Patrick Weaver is a member of the PGCS Organising Committee.

Australian Defence White Paper requires a major increase in project delivery capability.

DEF-WPThe Australian Defence White Paper 2016, released today, will require a major increase in project delivery capability across defence.   For the first time, an integrated approach to capital investment planning is being used which will provide the framework for a more coherent and efficient approach to managing the development of future Defence capability. However, whilst a single investment program will reduce the risk of incomplete or fragmented approaches to investment, there will be a corresponding need to seriously ramp up capabilities in program[1] and portfolio management.

Coupled with a more complex (but potentially beneficial) management environment, there is also a major increase in the volume of projects and programs with an expenditure of approximately $195 billion (in today’s terms) planned for the next decade. Some of the projects and programs in the pipeline include:

  • Increasing the submarine force from 6 to 12 regionally superior submarines with a high degree of interoperability with the United States.
  • Three Hobart Class Air Warfare Destroyers (under construction).
  • A new class of nine future frigates.
  • New replenishment vessels.
  • More capable offshore patrol vessels,
  • New manned and unmanned aircraft for border protection.
  • A new large-hulled multi-purpose patrol vessel, the Australian Defence Vessel Ocean Protector.
  • The F-35A Lightning II program.
  • Twelve E/A-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft.
  • More air-to-air refuellers will be acquired to support future combat, surveillance and transport aircraft.
  • New personal equipment for soldiers.
  • A new generation of armoured combat reconnaissance and infantry fighting vehicles, as well as new combat engineering equipment.
  • A new long-range rocket system to further enhance fire power,
  • Armed medium-altitude unmanned aircraft to enhance surveillance and protection for the land force.
  • Extending the life of and acquiring new weapons and equipment for the amphibious ships.
  • New light helicopters will be acquired to support Special Forces operations.
  • Upgrades to ADF bases and logistics systems, including fuel and explosive ordnance facilities.
  • Upgrade training and testing facilities, health services and information and communications technology.
  • Air lift capability will be increased to comprise 8 heavy lift C-17A Globemasters with additional heavy lift aircraft to be considered in the longer term, 12 upgraded C-130J Hercules, 10 C-27J Spartans and 10 CH-47F Chinook helicopters. Sea lift capability will be strengthened by extending the

Add the White Paper’s commitment to Australian industry involvement in most of these projects and the volume of work that will require effective project governance, management and controls becomes apparent. To download the white papers see: http://www.defence.gov.au/WhitePaper/

Fortunately Australia already has an effective forum focused on improving the capability of government and industry to govern and control its projects and programs.  The Project Governance and Controls Symposium, hosted by the University of Mew South Wales Canberra (ADFA), is focused on developing this capability and providing a forum for exchanging learning and ideas.  The 2016 Symposium is scheduled for May 10th to 12th, see: http://www.pgcs.org.au/

The Australia government has laid out the plans, its up to the project management profession to realise the intent, effectively and efficiently[2].   Watch this space…….


 

[1] Where the term ‘program’ is used to mean a series of projects (of very different types) managed together to achieve benefits that would not be available if they were managed separately. See: www.mosaicprojects.com.au/WhitePapers/WP1022_Program_Typology.pdf

[2] Improving the project delivery capability of Australian government departments is the focus of the separate Shergold report, see: https://mosaicprojects.wordpress.com/2016/02/20/the-shergold-report-calls-for-better-governance-and-better-project-controls/

The Shergold Report calls for better governance and better project controls!

Shergold2The recently released report by Professor Peter Shergold, ‘Learning from Failure: Why large government policy initiatives have gone so badly wrong in the past and how the chances of success in the future can be improved’ (the Shergold Report), sets out a framework designed to improve the delivery of major Australian Government programs.  But the framework is not limited to government; the concepts can be usefully applied by any organisation seeking to initiate a major program of works.

The report focuses on making practical recommendations to enhance the capacity of the Australian Government to:

  1. Design and implement large public programmes and projects;
  2. Develop robust and effective governance and accountability arrangements for such programmes and projects;
  3. Understand the broader environment in which programmes and policies are designed and implemented;
  4. Identify, understand and manage risks; and
  5. Provide accurate, timely, clear and robust advice to ministers and within the APS.

Substitute ‘organisation’ for ‘Australian Government’ and ‘senior stakeholders and governors’ for ‘ministers and within the APS’ and the value of the document to the wider community becomes apparent.

The Shergold Report does not make specific recommendations to the government; rather it reaches a series of immutable conclusions based on the narrative in each section and is intended to spark public comment and discussion from a wide spectrum of people both within and outside of the Australian Public Service.

The Shergold Report contains 28 proposals for improvement; the key conclusions are reproduced below are reformatted as recommended good practices for any organisation planning to undertake a major program of works:

Ensuring Robust Advice: Good governance is founded on good policy, and good policy depends on good advice. To this end, executives and managers should be held accountable for the quality of advice they provide. Significant advice should be provided in writing and records maintained.

Decision Making: The importance of decision-making, and the circumstances under which it occurs, underscore the need to have well-functioning support systems in place.

Creating a Positive Risk Culture: Moving the organisation from reactive, defensive risk management; to proactive, performance-focused risk engagement. The major challenge is to embed the new approaches within a strong risk culture. This requires: understanding appetites for risk on individual programs and across the portfolio, appointing a Chief Risk Officer, at a senior executive level, proposals should be supported by an endorsed Risk Management Plan, and preparing a bi-annual whole-of-organisation Risk Assessment for the governing body, analysing the system-wide impact of operational, financial, strategic, legislative and procurement risks faced by the organisation.

Enhancing Program Management: Program and project management are too often seen as control activities; they are actually creative processes!  They require discipline and professional expertise to maintaining single point accountability while being open and flexible to the opportunities of networked governance structures. To achieve this requires:

  • Defined standards of proficiency for project and program managers, with active support through career development opportunities, continued education and participation in professional communities of practice such as the upcoming Project Governance and Controls Symposium.
  • For each project or programs[1], a clear understanding of who accepts end-to-end responsibility for managing implementation (typically the Sponsor[2]), wields delegated authority and where accountability resides.

Opening up to diversity: A diversity of perspectives in the workplace and the boardroom improves performance. Diversity increases critical analysis of information, results in better decision-making and challenges ‘groupthink’. Program advisory groups should be established that include representation drawn from outside the organisation in order to capture a broader diversity of perspectives and knowledge.

Embracing adaptive governance: Organisations that thrive are flexible. They seize opportunities, learn rapidly and recognise that partners will be needed to deliver long-term goals. When they enter uncharted territory they respond fast, start small, test new approaches, watch market responses, learn from doing, scale-up their activity or, if necessary, try again.

Most importantly, they are honest about failure. They recognise that mistakes happen, interrogate why they occurred and set in place remedial measures to ensure that they perform better next time. Failure and its lessons are an inevitable part of entrepreneurial life but are also central to maintaining organisational competitiveness. This means (where possible) new proposals should include a trial or demonstration stage, allowing new approaches to be developed fast and evaluated early. Large projects should incorporate staged decision-making[3].

Conclusions

Good governance is focused on creating good outcomes, not developing a straightjacket of impenetrable and restrictive procedures – the person or organisation that has never made a mistake has never made anything! The art of effectively using project and programs to create a new and desirable future is effective governance, backed by prudent risk management and effective, adaptive delivery and change management processes. The Shergold Report concludes that:

  1. Policy is only as good as the manner in which it is implemented
  2. Policy advice can only be frank and fearless if it is supported by written argument.
  3. Deliberations, oral and in writing, need to be protected.
  4. Deliberative documents need to be preserved, whether written on paper or delivered by digital means.
  5. It is up to ministers (the governing body), not officials (management), to make policy decisions.
  6. The effective management of risk is just as important in the public sector as in the private – perhaps more so.
  7. As the public service fully commits itself to measuring results by outcomes, program management needs to be accorded far greater professional status.
  8. Good governance increasingly depends on collaboration across sectors.
  9. The APS needs to be further opened up. Diversity and external inputs to the organisation.
  10. An adaptive government (organisation) can respond rapidly to changing circumstances without taking unnecessary (and unforeseen) risks.

The one area missing from the Shergold Report is recognition of the importance and difficulty of implementing organisational change (and the disciplines of change management and benefits realisation). The concepts are implicit in many aspects of the report but would have benefitted from direct discussion.

These limitations aside, the Shergold Report is a very deep and well considered document, well worth the effort of reading by both private and public sector mangers and governors. It highlights failures and the learning that can be taken from the experiences to improve future outcomes. To quote Confucius “By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest”. Learning from other’s experience may not be the ‘noblest’ option but is far preferable to repeating avoidable mistakes.

We will be commenting further on this report in future posts and I’m sure it will feature prominently in discussions at the upcoming Project Governance and Controls Symposium that is being held in Canberra in May.

Shergold1

The full report can be downloaded from: http://www.apsc.gov.au/publications-and-media/current-publications/learning-from-failure

From a completely different source, the Australian Infrastructure Plan Priorities and reforms for our nation’s future (Feb. 2016), recommendations under Chapter 9 – Governance calls for very similar processes to the Shergold Report.  These reports, and many previous, have consistently promulgated the same message.  We know what needs to be done, understanding why its not being done is the real challenge.


 

[1] To understand the difference between a project and a program see: http://www.mosaicprojects.com.au/WhitePapers/WP1002_Programs.pdf

[2] For more on the role of the Sponsor see: http://www.mosaicprojects.com.au/WhitePapers/WP1031_Project_Sponsorship.pdf

[3] For more on ‘gateway reviews see: http://www.mosaicprojects.com.au/WhitePapers/WP1092_Gateways-Scorecards.pdf

Construction CPM -v- PGCS

We have just returned from a very enjoyable and successful trip to New Orleans for Construction CPM and now its time to focus on making our Project Governance and Controls Symposium (PGCS) in Canberra equally successful!

Construction CPM is probably the world leading event for project scheduling tools and advances in the field of major project scheduling. There were nearly 300 delegates, speakers and partners attending events over 7 days (the Construction CPM conference was 3 days in the middle).  The papers we presented were:

The emerging trends in New Orleans were firstly risk, new tools and many papers on the challenge of uncertainty and surprisingly ethics and stakeholders (more on these later).

Project Governance and Controls Symposium (PGCS) is designed to enhance the connection between governance and project controls in government department and corporations. It’s too soon to identify the trends that will emerge in May but we already have an impressive line up of Keynote Speakers. See more at: http://www.pgcs.org.au/

Both events have an emphasis on building knowledge through networking and social events.  However, the PGCS program, which includes a reception in the ADFA Officers Mess pales in comparison to Construction CPM.

Some of the things you will not see or experience in Canberra include:

Plated hot breakfasts starting at 6:30am with the first presentations at 8:00am (we run a more ‘civilised’ program starting around 9:00am……).

Our own Mardi Gras Parade……

NOL1NOL2

 

 

 

 

 

The Konstruction Krew consisting of 250+ project controls professionals following a jazz band (complete with police escort and waving umbrellas) in their own Mardi Gras Parade through the French Quarter to Bourbon Street.

Burbon-St

Last drinks and a locally rolled cigar at the Bourbon Heat from 9:00pm to 2:00am (if you have the staying power) When I bailed out at midnight, Bourbon Street was still going strong!!

Float

A totally different definition of ‘Float’ – several of the official Mardi Gras Parades – each organised by a different ‘Krew’ passed in front of our hotel in Canal Street.

CharmaineCharmaine Neville and her band playing inthe conference ‘Jazz Club’ from 9:00pm……..  PMOZ was renowned for its parties – Construction CPM is at least as good! In total there were 11520 ounces of alcohol consumed at the official events (plus cash purchases).

NOL3One final ‘only in New Orleans’ – ice cream daiquiris in the place they were invented……

Add  4 Keynote Speakers, 79 Breakout Sessions a mock trial, pre-arranged dinners with ‘5 new friends’ each evening and you have an intensive enjoyable learning experience.

The next Construction CPM is earlier then usual, December at the Swan Resort, Walt Disney World, Orlando Florida.

Our PGCS Symposium in Canberra will be a bit more subdued (after all there is only one ‘New Orleans’).  Where we will be as good, if not better, is in the quality of the speaking program.  PGCS speakers already confirmed include Lisa Wolf of Booze Hamilton Allen, Melinda Penna of Telstra, and Kim Terrell of Department of Human Services.  For regular updates on the progress of PGCS  see:  http://www.pgcs.org.au/