Probability -v- luck. Should we give up our day-job?

Based on a successful day at the races, 5 winners and one place from 8 bets, this article looks at the balance between luck and process in achieving the result.  Our conclusion is that you should not confuse luck with skill. Good processes will help build success, persistence will generate more opportunities for you to be lucky, and skill or capability will shift the odds in your favour, but randomness rules!

To quote Coleman Cox: I am a great believer in Luck. The harder I work, the more of it I seem to have.

Click to download the PDF.

For more papers on risk and probability see: https://mosaicprojects.com.au/PMKI-SCH-045.php#Process1

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